Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • South Africa
  • Cabo Verde
  • Libya
  • Morocco
  • Djibouti
  • Equatorial Guinea
  • Egypt
  • Namibia
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Mauritania
  • Madagascar
  • Senegal
  • Malawi

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $690,896$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{669,805.0}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 124.0)}}\) (asimptote \(669,805.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $17,673$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,602.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 123.3)}}\) (asimptote \(17,602.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $51,070$ on 2020-10-10

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,913$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,765.2}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 177.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9,765.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $74$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.8}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 177.9)}}\) (asimptote \(103.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $869$ on 2020-10-10

Libya⮸

Population $6,871,292$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $41,686$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{55,897.1}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 176.3)}}\) (asimptote \(55,897.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $623$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{980.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 177.2)}}\) (asimptote \(980.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,272$ on 2020-10-10

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $149,841$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{435,078.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 229.9)}}\) (asimptote \(435,078.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,572$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,546.1}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 231.0)}}\) (asimptote \(8,546.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,415$ on 2020-10-10

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,423$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,329.2}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 69.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,329.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59.7}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 58.7)}}\) (asimptote \(59.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7$ on 2020-10-10

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,063$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,284.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 109.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,284.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $83$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85.9}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 75.0)}}\) (asimptote \(85.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $86$ on 2020-10-10

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $104,387$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,404.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 97.2)}}\) (asimptote \(101,404.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,040$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,832.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 101.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,832.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $704$ on 2020-10-10

Namibia⮸

Population $2,540,905$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,891$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,433.6}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 160.2)}}\) (asimptote \(12,433.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-07-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $128$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{128.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 49.8)}}\) (asimptote \(128.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,956$ on 2020-10-10

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Mauritania recovered 96%
Madagascar recovered 88%
Senegal recovered 61%
Malawi recovered 57%
Rwanda recovered 39%
Uganda recovered 11%
Burkina Faso recovered 5%

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,550$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,145.4}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 92.0)}}\) (asimptote \(7,145.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $163$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{158.5}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 77.3)}}\) (asimptote \(158.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-10-10

Madagascar⮸

Population $27,691,018$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,702$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,224.2}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 116.6)}}\) (asimptote \(16,224.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $237$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{231.4}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 67.2)}}\) (asimptote \(231.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $453$ on 2020-10-10

Senegal⮸

Population $16,743,927$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,244$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,009.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 119.0)}}\) (asimptote \(16,009.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $314$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{322.9}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 104.6)}}\) (asimptote \(322.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,732$ on 2020-10-10

Malawi⮸

Population $19,129,952$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,821$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,832.8}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 88.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,832.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $180$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{179.2}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(179.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $997$ on 2020-10-10