Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $690,896$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{669,805.0}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 124.0)}}\) (asimptote \(669,805.0\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $17,673$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,602.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 123.3)}}\) (asimptote \(17,602.4\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $51,070$ on 2020-10-10
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,913$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,765.2}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 177.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9,765.2\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $74$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.8}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 177.9)}}\) (asimptote \(103.8\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $869$ on 2020-10-10
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $41,686$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{55,897.1}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 176.3)}}\) (asimptote \(55,897.1\))
Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $623$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{980.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 177.2)}}\) (asimptote \(980.7\))
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,272$ on 2020-10-10
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $149,841$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{435,078.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 229.9)}}\) (asimptote \(435,078.4\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,572$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,546.1}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 231.0)}}\) (asimptote \(8,546.1\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,415$ on 2020-10-10
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,423$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,329.2}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 69.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,329.2\))
Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $61$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59.7}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 58.7)}}\) (asimptote \(59.7\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7$ on 2020-10-10
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,063$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,284.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 109.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,284.8\))
Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $83$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85.9}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 75.0)}}\) (asimptote \(85.9\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $86$ on 2020-10-10
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $104,387$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,404.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 97.2)}}\) (asimptote \(101,404.3\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,040$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,832.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 101.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,832.4\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $704$ on 2020-10-10
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $11,891$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,433.6}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 160.2)}}\) (asimptote \(12,433.6\))
Start date 2020-07-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $128$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{128.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 49.8)}}\) (asimptote \(128.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,956$ on 2020-10-10